Me: 5/12, 5/12 ATS (17/45, 20/45 ATS)
SHatter: 6/12, 6/12 ATS (24/45, 22/45 ATS)
VTFerguson: 3/12, 4/12 ATS (13/34, 14/34 ATS) [13/45, 14/45]
IbisFan33: 3/12, 2/12 ATS (20/34, 14/34 ATS) [20/45, 15/45]
SHatter rocked this week, and IbisFan33 tried to let the rest of us catch up. That was nice of him. That week, though, made a few marquee ACC teams (FSU, Miami, UNC and Clemson) look silly and a couple look great (VT and GT). How much of a factor did the rain play? Makes life fumblier, that's for sure. I was out of town and missed most of the games, so I can't really comment further. On to the picks!
1. FSU (-4.5) @ BC
This game is the Gameday game? What? It's kind of a slow week, but this isn't even the most compelling game involving the ACC, let alone the country. Good lord. Even after the massive brain fart that was the USF game, FSU is still dangerous and I expect them to go nuts and win by well more than 5. Against a QB, who while awful, still threw for more TDs than ours did in our game.
2. Ole Miss (-9.0) @ Vanderbilt
We love Vandy here at this blog, even if they haven't really returned the favor yet. This will help fill in the picture on the also rans in the SEC, like Ole Miss and South Carolina, after the Rebels put up a stinker against the Gamecocks. It's my Clemson bias showing through, but I think that Ole Miss is just a lot crappier than we saw last year and the 'Dores pull the upset.
3. NCSU @ Wake Forest (-1.0)
Wake is favored in this game? Wolfpack for a thousand, Alex. This game starts to make Seminole and Tiger fans start to get antsy about the Atlantic Division.
4. Air Force @ Navy (-3.0)
Service academy games are fun. I would like to see us play them more. I think Navy is the better team here, but I want to watch this football game. Navy wins and covers.
5. LSU @ UGa (-3.0)
Both of these teams kind of look like shadows of themselves, even though LSU is undefeated still. This line confuses me, I would have expected the Tigers to be favored. I think LSU is better, even though they have been underwhelming so far. I'll take them to win.
6. Georgia Tech (-6.0) @ Mississippi State
MSU is showing signs of life we haven't seen n Starkville since Jerrious Norwood got Ron Zook fired. The Bulldogs are sneaky good at home, so I think they'll cover, but the Bees still win.
7. UCLA @ Stanford (-5.5)
UCLA is another one of the surprising undefeated teams, and Stanford is a choked game away from being there right with them. Ivan Maisel pointed out on his podcast that this is the most important conference game in the Bay area, even though USC is playing at Cal this weekend. Weird. I think UCLA could sneak this one out, though.
8. Auburn @ Tennessee (-2.0)
Night game in Knoxville... but Auburn has been scoring points, has a signature win from behind, and is undefeated. They look like the surprise team in the West that I thought Arkansas was going to be. As much as I like Monte Kiffin, the Volunteers' QB stinks. Malzahn will wear that good defense out, and I think the Tigers steal one.
9. Southern California (-5) @ Regular California
The Bears kind of got humiliated last week, and as tempting as they are to take for the rebound, I don't think I can do it. Trojans win, but don't cover.
10. Oklahoma! (-7.5) @ Miami
This is the game at which ESPN and Big and Rich and Cowboy Troy should be singing. Is Bradford back? Do they actually kind of suck (comparatively)? What about Miami's debacle last week? How many times will the commentators say "swagger"? Good lord, is that obnoxious. No other team walks around like they're better than other people? Really? That said, I don't think OU has it together yet. I think that Miami, being at home and having their faces shoved in their own poop last week gets them fired up to win big.
BONUS: VT (-17) @ Duke
Throwing Ferguson a bone because I felt bad that the rest of our teams made it and his didn't. VT by like a thousand.
Clemson (-13.0) @ Maryland
Maryland looks like an awful team, and sadly there might be two teams worse than the Terps in the ACC. We are looking like what we thought we would, a 7-5/8-4 kind of team, assuming we win the games we're suppose to, like this one. I think we win and cover and might even score an offensive touchdown!
Summary Winner (ATS):
ReplyDeleteFSU-BC: FSU (FSU)
Ole Miss-Vandy: Vandy (Vandy)
NCSU-Wake: NCSU (NCSU)
AF-Navy: Navy (Navy)
LSU-UGa: LSU (LSU)
GT-MSU: GT (GT)
UCLA-Stanford: UCLA (UCLA)
Auburn-UT: AU (AU)
USC(real)-Cal: USC (Cal)
OU-UM: UM (UM)
VT-Duke: VT (VT)
Clemson-UMd: Clemson (Clemson)
1. FSU (-4.5) @ BC
ReplyDeleteFlorida State University is easily the most frustrating team in football. They will win big against BC, but they don't deserve to. They deserve to lose every game for the rest of the season and have all of the coaching staff dismissed. Even Mickey Andrews is sucking it up lately. FSU by 10.
2. Ole Miss (-9.0) @ Vanderbilt
I like Vandy and all, but last week's game against USC was a close one, even with Ole Miss having 18 starters sidelined with swine flu. That says a lot about USC and Ole Miss. I think Ole Miss comes back healthy, swinging, takes down Vandy and covers the spread.
3. NCSU @ Wake Forest (-1.0)
Oh man, who cares about this game? Both ACC teams are awful this year. The ACC is making SEC fans gloat about their conference again. I guess Wake wins and covers.
4. Air Force @ Navy (-3.0)
Air Force comes out and bombs the Navy. They upset the Midshipmen.
5. LSU @ UGa (-3.0)
Go dawgs! LSU loses a heartbreaker. Dawgs cover.
6. Georgia Tech (-6.0) @ Mississippi State
Dan Mullen should win coach of the year. Already calling it. He wins this one over a pretty decent Ga Tech team. UPSET ALERT.
7. UCLA @ Stanford (-5.5)
Stanford doesn't cover, but they do win.
8. Auburn @ Tennessee (-2.0)
Lane Kiffin gets to sing Rocky Top all night long after this one. UT wins, covers, and Smoky eats an eagle.
9. Southern California (-5) @ Regular California
USC wins and covers. Speedy recovery to the kid who dropped the weights on his throat. That sounds awful.
10. Oklahoma! (-7.5) @ Miami
Oklahoma wins, with or without Bradford, and they do it convincingly. Which sucks for FSU fans, because Miami is not looking good anymore.
BONUS: VT (-17) @ Duke
VT wins, covers, and Duke's football team quits.
Clemson (-13.0) @ Maryland
If Clemson doesn't win this game, Dabo won't be long for the coaching arena in Clemson. Clemson by 20.
FSU-4.5@BC: FSU seems to be on a pendulum, swinging to and fro from looking good on O and bad on D, to strong D but bad O. So this week should be a good O week, right? Perhaps not, as BC has a strong D that might hold up better than expected. However, BC doesn't have a QB who can capitalize on any of FSU's missteps. I don't like Bowden's kharma-destroying comment on being surprised by USF's talent. Expect a lower-scoring affair to break the cycle for FSU, but still see FSU overcoming the Eagles, FSU 20-10.
ReplyDeleteOle Miss-9@Vandy: It seems as though Ole Miss should start looking for the real Jevan Snead, and looking hard. The media's QB darkhorse before the season, Snead hasn't improved as expected, and is killing his draft stock. Plus his haircut looks just awful. Still, I can't help thinking that SoCar's pass rush made this team look worse than they really are. I don't think that Vandy will be able to bring the same kind of pressure as USC, and I see Ole Miss fairing much better. Ole Miss to win and cover, Miss 24-13.
NCSU@Wake-1: Wake Forest favored?? Strange. This matchup pits the hyperaccurate, no-mistake-making QB of yesteryear (Skinner) against the current version (Wilson). WFU's lack of depth on D put them in a hole they couldn't get out of against BC. Meanwhile, NCSU overcame a similar deficit against a Pitt team that is better than BC. NCSU all the way here, 28-17.
AF@Navy-3: Quietly, AF is a really solid team this year, battling Minny to the wire and handling a couple low-level MWC teams. Navy had a high-profile loss to Ohio St, and wasn't blown out by Pittsburgh. I like Navy, and always root for 'em, but I can't help thinking that they'll eventually drop off as the memory of Coach Johnson wears off. This might be the first indication of the upcoming decline: Air Force wins 29-24.
LSU@UGa-3: Another week when the 4th ranked team in the nation gets no vote of confidence from Vegas. The popular pick to get tagged this week, LSU hasn't yet played to their talent level, and is going up against an apparently formidable offense in UGa. I must say UGa's scoring outbursts against SoCar and Arky were unexpected given the talent drain from last year; I think last week's ASU game was more indicative of where this team really is. The problem for me is this: LSU is going to break out sometime. They're too talented not to blow up offensively on somebody soon. I don't see it this week, but I think this team can get by until it comes together. LSU 23-21.
GT-6@MSU: One of those ACC-SEC games where the ACC really has nothing to gain. If GT wins, well, they ought to. If MSU wins, every team in the SEC takes partial credit. GT creamed UNC last week at home, finding their groove in the running game. MSU has shown more of a pulse on O, however, and will offer a better challenge this week. I'm rooting hard for the ACC here, and I think GT's best game is better than MSU's best game. I see GT getting ahead early before the offense stalls and they have to fend off MSU late, GT wins and covers 24-17.
UCLA@Stanford-5.5: UCLA was my Pac-10 sleeper in the preseason, and so far so good as they held serve in non-conf play. That said, they seem to never have a healthy QB situation the last couple seasons, and this year's no different. Stanford has a nice young QB prospect, but their offense truly leans on their battering ram RB, who went for 200 yds against Washington last week. I think UCLA's defense is getting overlooked here, and they've already faced a battering ram RB and won, against Tenn. Sticking by UCLA here, UCLA 20-14.
ReplyDeleteAuburn@UT-2: Extreeeeeemely surprised to see Tennessee favored here. Tenn got some credit, which it deserved, by hanging tough with UF a couple weeks ago, but Auburn has been lights out on offense so far this season. Count me as on the Malzahn bandwagon, until proven otherwise. Auburn will allow some points on D, but I just don't know if Crompton is the QB to go point for point with a prolific offense. Auburn wins this one, 34-21.
SoCal-5@Cal: At least I wasn't alone when I picked Cal last week, but that was a rather emphatic beat down that the Golden Bears took. Hard to know what to think after a game like that; Cal almost certainly isn't as bad as they looked against Oregon, but they aren't as good as I thought beforehand either. Meanwhile, USC seems to have settled into an offensive rut; they just aren't working well at all. I really don't know what will happen here; it's clear that USC is vulnerable, but Cal came up waaaay short last week. When in doubt, take the points. SoCal to win, but the home 'dog covers. USC 21-17.
OU-7.5@UM: Miami concludes a very difficult opening month by playing their fourth ranked opponent. Miami is consistently failing to generate pressure on opposing QBs so far, and it finally bit them against VT. Meanwhile, VT made Jacory Harris look very average by applying pressure; Oklahoma has at least as much talent on DL as VT. on the flip side, Bradford will be on the bench again, and Miami has much more defensive speed than Mr. Mustache has yet seen. I look for Miami to finally get to the QB a little bit and make this game pretty competitive and rather low scoring. But ultimately I think Miami is a bit on the small side and might be pushed around up front. Oklahoma to win, Miami to cover, OU 17-10.
VT-17@Duke: Welllll, I am a VT fan, but there wasn't any real need to humor me with this one. Duke has failed to establish a ground game against anyone other than NC Central, and Cutcliffe has unwisely and surprisingly created a QB controversy around Lewis and Renfree. Meanwhile, freakin' ARMY ran with success on Duke, and their defensive MVP d-tackle is doubtful with a leg injury. I hope Stinespring runs early and often, and then tinkers with the passing game once the outcome is no longer in doubt. VT will probably outnumber Duke in the stands. VT wins easily but won't run up the score: VT 38-13.
Clemson-13@UMd: Clemson matches up against Maryland in a mini-revenge game. Luckily for Clemson this year, Maryland looks horrible. Maryland is giving up turnovers in bunches and not forcing any; so far they've turned it over 13 times and forced only 3 in return. A Maryland win isn't unthinkable here; Clemson could give the game away if they don't get some better QB play. But in all probability, Maryland's inability to protect their QB and stop the run will seal the deal. I do think the most interesting thing here will be whether Swinney sticks by Parker if the QB starts slow. Clemson to win, Maryland to cover, CU 24-14.
Service Academy games are ONLY fun if you win. Otherwise, they're 6-8 hours of misery.
ReplyDeleteFSU over BC, but close
Ole Miss rebounds on Vandy
NCSU beats WF
Navy over AF, though I'd rather both of them lose
GA beats LSU, who's caught looking - which I kind of hope happens, so they'll be really pissed off and beat UF next week
GT beats MSU
UCLA continues to roll over Stanford
Auburn over UT, Vols are simply not up to par yet
I like Cal over USC - Jahvid Best is simply the best (no pun intended) player in D-1
The U over OU. If this game was in Norman, I'd go the other way, but without Bradford on the road, simply not going to happen
VT over Duke and badly
Clemson over Maryland. Terps are just horrendous this year.
And bonus, Army over Tulane. Even when Army couldn't beat highschool teams, they could beat Tulane.