This week will answer some questions for us across the board, I think. Like can the midpack SEC teams play defense? Is Miami actually that good? Is the Pac10 the most interesting conference in the country? And what's up with Georgia Tech's offense? Let's find out!
9/24
Ole Miss (-4.0) @ South Carolina
I'm pretty sure that everyone in the country thinks that the Rebels are overrated. They are. But does that mean that they are not better than the Gamecocks? No, it does not. Ole Miss wins and covers on the road.
9/26
Wake Forest @ BC (-1.0)
This line surprises me. BC does not look that good, and Wake Forest has actually beaten BCS level competition. The Eagles' QB is not good, and Wake's is. I have to take the Deacs here. A vote for Wake is a vote for Protestants.
Pittsburgh @ NC State (-1.0)
I cannot believe that the Wolfpack is favored in this game. An ACC team that looked terrible at home against an average SEC team gets a point against the Big East favorite? As much crap as we've gotten as a conference from the media so far, this is ridiculous. I was going to take NCSU anyway, I just wanted some points while doing it.
Arkansas @ Alabama (-17.5)
This is a lot of points. This game, I think, will tell us a good deal about the SEC's teams; if Arky can light up the scoreboard on Bama, then I think we can say that UGa, SoCar and Arky all have good offenses. If the Hogs find themselves Hog Tide (get it?) then basically I think it will look like the conference minus Bama and UF are in for a down year the rest of the way. In any event, I'll take Bama to win and not cover because Good Lord, it's almost three touchdowns.
USF @ FSU (-14.0)
Hey look! Their letters are the same in reverse! This game became a lot less interesting without Grothe. FSU wins and covers.
UNC @ GT (-2.5)
This is a really interesting game because the Heels have looked bad winning and Tech has looked bad winning and losing so far. NC has the DLine to keep the dive in check, but all it takes is a few wily plays out of PJ to keep the game interesting (Grr). I think after last week, the Bees will find a way to win.
Washington @ Stanford (-7.0)
After last week's crazypants upset, this game just got a lot more interesting. Was last week just Pete Carroll's typical "Oops, I crapped my pants" game, or was Sarkisian putting the West Coast on notice? I will take Stanford to win, but not cover, because I think it'll be close but the emotion of last week will be too much for the Huskies to deal with.
Cal (-5.5) @ Oregon
This is just another game that makes the Pac10 seem oddly compelling this season. Will Oregon's first game serve as Murderfuel for them to take the form that we (I) kind of expected out of them? Or is Jahvid Best going to go bananas again like he did against Minnesota? I think Oregon is able to continue winning at home, even though this pick hurts me, because I am pretty high on both of these teams.
Texas Tech @ Houston (-1.0)
I was trying to pick between this game and UGa-ASU, and I chose this one because it seems weirder, and I think that Georgia is a far superior team. This matchup is nonsense. Houston has shown impressive aptitude so far, and the Red Raiders always remain capable of scoring like 900 touchdowns through the air. The over/under in this game is 73. I'll take the over, and Coach Leach recovers from last week Arrrghhh.
Miami (-2.5) @ Virginia Tech
This is the most interesting game of the day. High ranking opponents, Miami going crazy on offense and VT pretty much being VT. The Canes got the GT monkey off their back last week, and now they go to Blacksburg. It's hard to bet against Jacory Harris right now, but the Hokies will have a better DLine than anything Miami has had to deal with so far. If Tech gets consistent pressure, then Harris might do dumb stuff. I will take Miami to win but not cover, for no reason other than to hedge my bets and because I could see it being super close.
BONUS GAME: Iowa @ Penn St (-9.5)
This is one of the most important Big Ten games of the year. I don't think it's really that interesting because the Big Ten just isn't that fun to watch right now. Sure, Michigan looks a little better, but that's pretty much all they have going on right now. Penn St will play in the national title game this year, and they win this one, but it looks oddly close. Penn State wins, but Iowa covers.
TCU @ Clemson (-2.5)
I just got an e-mail that says this is the 50th year anniversary of the Blue Bonnet Bowl where we beat them. Hooray. I think this will be a matchup of two excellent defensive squads that will be settled by special teams. I could see this ending something like 13-6. Of course I'm taking Clemson, and I think we cover.
South Carolina over Ole Miss...I'm getting my pick in early this time! The rest to follow Saturday morning I'm sure.
ReplyDeleteOkay this one is my official picks.
ReplyDelete9/24
Ole Miss (-4.0) @ South Carolina
South Carolina upsets a decent Ole Miss team. USC by 1.
9/26
Wake Forest @ BC (-1.0)
BC wins and covers.
Pittsburgh @ NC State (-1.0)
NCSU wins and covers.
Arkansas @ Alabama (-17.5)
Bama wins and covers. Nick Saban earns his keep. Bama wins by 28.
USF @ FSU (-14.0)
Fsu wins and covers. FSU wins big.
UNC @ GT (-2.5)
UNC upsets Ga Tech. Go Baby Blue.
Washington @ Stanford (-7.0)
Washington is on a euphoric high of victory and pete carroll's tears. Washington wins based on that.
Cal (-5.5) @ Oregon
Cal wins and covers.
Texas Tech @ Houston (-1.0)
Houston has been lighting the world on fire. I pick against them once, shame on me. Pick against them twice.... can't get fooled again! Go Houston.
Miami (-2.5) @ Virginia Tech
Miami wins it! and covers. Making their victory over FSU seem that much more exciting.
BONUS GAME: Iowa @ Penn St (-9.5)
Penn State blows out Iowa. They make a statement. They win big.
TCU @ Clemson (-2.5)
Texas Christian wins by 10.
Let me comment on some of those picks.
ReplyDelete1) Why is everyone taking NCState vs Pitt? I know they finished last year strong, and they had some preseason hype, but they barely scored against South Carolina, and Pitt has won all of their games easily. I would take Pitt to win that one.
2) I don't know what to make of Washington. I think they deserve to be ranked based on results so far, but also think they will have trouble making a bowl game. I would pick Stanford to win an Cover.
3) I understand hoping for good things from your team, and, like any Clemson grad, I would like a win vs TCU... but I would take the Frogs if I had to pick.
4) Some notes about Cal from the game vs my Minnesota Gophers. (Where I sat in the student section next to the visitors seats and help vioently boo any Cal fan who wandered into our section because the stairways are poorly labeled and confusing in the new stadium)
-Minnesota was tied with Cal at the end of 3 quarters, but it was mostly because of plain dumb luck, mostly on special teams.
-When Cal was playing well, their offense was dominating. Like Javid Best for 15 yards every time he got the ball.
-Minnesota actually dominated Cal on both sides of the ball for a good quarter and a half. If someone had watched just quarter 3 and 8 minutes of quarter 4, they would think the Gophers were the better football team hands down.
-Minnesota had the game nearly in control with 7 minutes left. They had just sacked the QB on 3rd-10, setting up a Cal punt from their own 6 yard line. At this point Minnesota had been driving on every posession and stopping Cal without a problem. Gophers would have the ball at midfield with the score tied, 7 minutes left, a clicking offense and a kicker who hits from 45 yards. Instead, as the sack was happening - literally as the QB was falling to the ground - a flag came out at the line of scrimage. What could it be? Holding? Hands to the face? It was a False Start, apparently happening before the play and even the players couldn't hear the whistle over the crowd. The kick return team was already on the field while they explained. That forced a replay of down at 3rd-15 instead of the sack. They converted and went on for the final 2 touchdowns to ice the game. Sure, Gophers should have been able to stop 3rd and 15, but its still unusual that a false start penalty greatly helps the team it's called on.
-Cal's special teams looked bad. Not "below average for a top 25 team", but "I bet North Dakota State runs that play better" bad. Their kick coverage was terrible, Gophers regularly got back to the 40 on kickoffs, and should have returned one to the house. Their first one went out of bounds. Their punts were short. Their return blocking was bad, and their returners had trouble fielding kicks and punts. Minnesota got one of their punts back because it hit a Cal blocker in the back. And they tried a 40 yard field goal and it looked like one of those punts that the kicker tries to angle to go out of bounds at the one yard line.
-Cal could be a contender in the Pac 10 if they play like they did during the first half and last 7 minutes vs Minnesota, but if games come down to special teams, Cal is in trouble.
The takeaway is that Cal is vulnerable, especially on special teams, but when they play well, they could play anyone. I expect they have their heads on straight for a conference game, win and cover.
No picks last week, but they wouldn't have been much better than the 0-fer anyway. Without further ado:
ReplyDeleteOle Miss (-4.0) @ South Carolina - Mississippi is a strange story...at first universally overhyped, now universally discounted due to overhype. A -4 spread is an insult to a top 5 team, even on a Thursday night road game. This game is hard to read, since Miss hasn't played anyone and USC is hot-cold on O and D. All else failing, go with the better QB, and that's Snead. Mississippi wins and covers, 27-17.
Wake Forest @ BC (-1.0) - Both teams are going to need every win they can get this season. Two rebuilding jobs, and each showing some warts already this season with so-so results. BC is surprisingly favored, and they do have an underrated home-field advantage. But this is major-conference football, and one-dimensional teams are exposed against equal or better competition. Wake has enough for this win and cover, but this won't be much of a game to watch: Wake 17-14.
Pittsburgh @ NC State (-1.0) - One of the more perplexing games this week. Pitt's offense hasn't been anything special against some second rate competition. NCSU's offense was running in mud against USC. My ACC-bias says that this is a Pitt team that hasn't found a running option this season, and NCSU's Russell Wilson is looking more like Russell Wilson the last two weeks. But Pitt never loses the games it's SUPPOSED to. I hope I'm wrong, but Pitt wins and covers, 24-17.
Arkansas @ Alabama (-17.5) - I agreed with EngineerSighted's tingly feeling about Ark during the preseason, and really I still feel like Petrino is a darn good offensive coach who isn't getting credit because he's a snake in the grass. However, giving up 50+ points last week scares me. Meanwhile, 'Bama is playing as well as anyone in the nation, with a signature win and two authoritative blowouts. Arkansas' season thus far points to track meet, but Bama's D is a different animal. Go with Bama here, with a big win that makes people wonder whether UF is the best SEC team after all, Bama 38 - Ark 16.
USF @ FSU (-14.0) - A much more interesting game before Grote was injured. FSU is getting mucho credit for outclassing BYU last week, who was seriously overranked at #7. Does that mean FSU is really really good? Eh I'm not so sure. Ponder is looking steadier and steadier, looking to pass before running more and more. Does that mean FSU blows USF out? I don't think so. USF has a defense with size and speed that matches up better than BYU did. Grote's absence, though, is a killing blow, so I'll pick USF to cover, Fla St to win, FSU 30-21.
UNC @ GT (-2.5) - GT was manhandled by the Miami OL, as Jacory Harris had all day. Such is life when the refs won't call holding and you leave your corners in man-to-man. Luckily, UNC's O is not quite so good. On the other side, UNC's Defense is shockingly reminiscient of Miami's, with talented size up front. This spells trouble for GT, who did nothing for the last 6 quarters. I think GT will get better: Defenses are picking up on cues a half-second faster this year and beating the blockers to the spot; refine the "pursuit" angles in the downfield blocking and they'll start hitting big running plays again. Johnson is a good enough coach to make the proper adjustments. Unfortunately, it won't happen this week. I'm picking UNC to win and cover in a close one: UNC 20-17.
Washington @ Stanford (-7.0) - Personally not very interested in this game. Stanford blew a sure win against Wake Forest (thank goodness), which makes me sour on their progress. Meanwhile, Washington caught everyone's attention by rising up and defeating a banged up SoCal team in one of those nothing-to-lose-everything-to-gain type of games. Locker has been a gritty, physical QB for a couple seasons now, so I'm glad to see him get his signature win. Wash's D stepped up big, and I tend to like good D over good O in a one-game shot. But asking Wash to show up two Saturdays in a row like that might be too much: Stanford wins 24-13.
ReplyDeleteCal (-5.5) @ Oregon - Cal has done everything they're supposed to so far, and Best is my Heisman frontrunner so far. Oregon has been a basketcase, doing just enough after being beaten up by Boise. Oregon has a great home field, and the talent is evenly distributed between these two teams. But Cal has the Best player on the field in this one, so I'm going with the Golden Bears to win and cover, 37-27.
Texas Tech @ Houston (-1.0) - Houston is another team getting more attention after a surprising win early in the season. The question is: does that mean they're really that good? Or was a good-not-great team exposed by another good-not-great team? I remember clearly ECU pulling upsets of VT and WVU last season and rising into the top 15, but not maintaining that lofty perch. Meanwhile, TTU gave Texas more of a game than anticipated. Houston can score in bunches, and TTU can too. Both D's are rather porous. But I'm going with TTU here, 38-30.
Miami (-2.5) @ Virginia Tech - The game of biggest ACC consequence this weekend, Miami is on a meteoric rise after kicking GT's butt on National TV. I admit that they looked awesome and, as a VT fan, I'm intimidated. Meanwhile, VT overcame Nebraska despite being outplayed most of the game. No apologies from me, a better team holds that lead. Miami certainly has all the Mo' heading into this showdown. However, I also know that VT's got a great track record as a home underdog, and Miami's pass D is not as good as it looked against run-only GT. I anticipate a pretty chippy game as the Miami "swagger", aka arrogance, rears its ugly head. Gotta stick with my Hokies though: VT wins and covers, 24-20.
BONUS GAME: Iowa @ Penn St (-9.5) - Iowa has officially awoken from their week 1 slumber, defeating their last two opponents much more convincingly. Meanwhile, Penn St has padded Jo-Pa's numbers by taking on the most embarassing non-conf slate in the history of non-conf slates. Darryl Clark has looked super smooth guiding the O, with good downfield vision. But that was against horrible teams. So here's the crux of the issue: I haven't got a clue. I'll take PSU to win, and Iowa to cover, maybe I'll get lucky. PSU 30-24.
TCU @ Clemson (-2.5) - Surprised Clemson is the favorite here, as TCU outranks them and has done everything right so far. Clemson certainly looks like more of a team than last year, and I am coming around on Swinney as a good hire. Spiller is back to 100%, and is a truly dangerous weapon in space. However, Parker looked like he took a step back last week, and TCU's hallmark the last few seasons has been a strong D. But when I look at this game, I see it going two ways: Clemson by a mile or TCU in a close one. I've been dogging Clemson so far this season, so I'll mix it up and pick Clemson to win and cover, CU 21-17.
I have shown amazing dedication by actually waking up early enough on a Saturday to get these picks in on time! Especially since I haven't gotten home before 3:00 AM for the last three Friday nights. But my semi-drunken picks have served me well so far! Here goes:
ReplyDeleteWake Forest @ BC (-1.0)
I'm surprised by the line as well. I'd expect a lot scoring game, but Wake has looked superior. Wake to win.
Pittsburgh @ NC State (-1.0)
Are these spreads reversed? Pitt to win.
Arkansas @ Alabama (-17.5)
Bama should win, but Arkansas will put up points. In order for Bama to cover, they'd need to score 40+ in my books and I don't see that happening. 'bama wins, 'kansas covers.
USF @ FSU (-14.0)
Hurts USF that this is at Tallahassee...that's the only reason why I think FSU covers.
UNC @ GT (-2.5)
This is my toughest pick. I think everyone gives UNC a lot of credit for beating GT last year...but GT more or less self-destructed rather than UNC actually doing anything. But UNC has some quality LBs and DBs which should be interesting to watch against the option. I'm going with GT to win and cover and get back into the top 25.
Washington @ Stanford (-7.0)
I'm on the UW bandwagon. I like their QB a lot and they've played well against good competition. I'm just curious if they'll be able to actually handle winning and all the hype that comes with it. I'll hedge my bet...I think Washington wins but Stanford covers.
Cal (-5.5) @ Oregon
This is at Oregon and it screams upset, but I've got Cal and I think they cover.
Texas Tech @ Houston (-1.0)
This is my second toughest pick. Was the win over Okie State a fluke or is Houston for real? I'm taking Tech to win, but it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't.
Miami (-2.5) @ Virginia Tech
Well no secret about my pick here. On paper, I just can't see how Miami loses, but that's why they play the game. Miami man-handled Va Tech last year (the score was not a good indication of how much Miami dominated). Since then Va Tech has lost a whole lot of talent on both sides of the ball, while Miami has upgraded in almost every position (including OC and DC). Special teams is what I think could make this game close and cause huge momentum shifts. If Miami can keep kick offs under control then I think they should win and cover.
BONUS GAME: Iowa @ Penn St (-9.5)
Congratulations to Penn State for finally playing completing their exhibition schedule!!! I'm not sure Penn State deserves the ranking they have right now. But I think they win this game and cover simply because it's a revenge game. We'll find out more about Penn State later in their schedule though.
TCU @ Clemson (-2.5)
ACC represent! Clempson to win and cover!
I misread the UW Stanford line...I'll just take UW to win!
ReplyDeleteWow...I think I let the hype get to my head this week, like my fellow Canes...
ReplyDelete