Last week was not my best showing. I went 3/11 on the games and 3/11 on the spread. I could have had a chicken walk across a bingo card I created with those teams and choose the teams it pecks and done at least that well. I even missed the upset. Crap.
VTFerguson did me one better on the games at 4/11 and 5/11 on the spread. SHatter won the games outright with 5/11, the spread with 4/11, but he did call the awkward moment correctly.
I blame Kenny Chesney and Dave Matthews for our poor performances. Why does ESPN have this insistence on forcing music on us? It might not be so bad if it wasn't the same two songs all damn season. Or in the case of Big and Rich and Cowboy Troy for what seems like ever. These people have been singing that abhorrent "Coming to your Citay" song or longer than half of the ACC coaches have been in their current jobs. Nothing says "hip" like a five year old song performed by a novelty country act!
Week 2 is not as supercharged with fun as Week 1 was, even if our beloved conference caught a ton of hell. Only two of the good teams in the conference lost (VT and FSU), each to quality opponents, the crappy ones turned out to be really crappy, and the middle of the conference (UNC, GT, Clemson) were not tested last week. Miami was the big story, and with Bradford going out and VT does not look to be super offensive this year, that if they can get by GT and VT, they might be the national program the conference is looking for. Then again, GT hung like 13,000 rushing yards on the Canes last year, so those are big ifs.
Picks!
Stanford @ Wake (-2.5)
Wake let us all down last week (not as bad as Navy did, though). I kind of think they'll do it again. Stanford and the drunk tree beat the Deacs.
UNC (-5.0) @ UConn
UConn is not any good, and UNC is supposed to be. Some cred is rebuilt for the ACC as the Heels tar the Huskies by at least a touchdown, probably more.
Iowa (-7.0) @ Iowa St.
Iowa dodged two bullets against in embarrassing fashion by blocking two field goals to avoid getting beat in their own house by Northern Iowa. Yuck. Will they be able to use that kind of mojo again on the road in Ames? Probably, but it will again be embarrassingly close; Cyclones cover.
Minnesota (-4.5) @ Air Force
Minnesota won a squeaker against Syracuse (who threw no less than 85 bubble screens in a Rob Spence masterpiece) who played Greg Paulus (did you know he used to play point guard for Duke?) and AF put up 76 on Nobody State while allowing zero. This is a pride game for the MWC, and they are on a mission. I vote for Air Force; I vote for America. This is my upset pick.
Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Michigan
This game is what I think it would be like to go back to your 25 year high school reunion to see two twice divorced cheerleaders vying for the attention of the balding, beer-gutted captain of the football team. In their day, it would have been a dramatic thing of beauty, but now it's a casserole of awkward and sad. Both won their previous games in convincing fashion, but I think there's less sag in ND's figure than Michigan's. Irish win and cover. Sláinte!
Purdue @ Oregon (-11.5)
This is not that interesting and I apologize. Despite laying an egg last week, I think that the Boilers are just the team to turn things around in Duckburg. (See what I did there?) Purdue covers, that's a lot of points for a team with that much drama to give.
Vanderbilt @ LSU (-14.5)
Mr. Miles went to Washington (the other one) and did not score a million points last week. Vandy beat up on WCU. I'd love to take te 'Dores here, but the Bayou Bengals will win, but not by as much as you think, so I can only say they'll cover.
UCLA @ Tennessee (-7.5)
Lane Kiffen did his best impression of Urban Meyer last week by scoring 63 on the most incredible amorphous mascot ever. This is a rematch of an oddly exciting game from last year that started the Fulmer Train on its way to Sackedville. The Vols start building momentum until getting smashed on the Swamp next week. Tennessee wins big.
South Carolina @ UGa (-7.0)
SoCar played the ugliest game I have watched rom beginning to end last week. All I could think of was the Dodgeball quote involving retards, a doorknob, and an act of sexual congress. My girlfriend was sad after the OKSU game last week, and lucky for both of us, that attitude will be gone this weekend because Georgia will win, though probably win ugly in a game that will be closer than it ought to be. Go Dawgs! Cocks cover, sadly.
USC (-7.0) @ Ohio State
In the preseason, it was chic to say that Ohio State would beat USC this year, but last weak, they avoided a really, really close shave against Navy. What is the takeaway for a team like OSU playing against the Paul Johnson offense (minus Paul Johnson)? Nobody knows. I still like the Buckeyes' chances, actually. The struggles will be good for them; I could see Ohio State winning outright.
9/10
Clemson @ GT (-5.5)
Speaking of the Paul Johnson offense, my Tigers get to meet up with the real McCoy for the second time tomorrow night, which I will be watching in person. Neither team was really tested last week, and both superstar running backs put on a show right out of the gates. Dwyer ran for a big TD on the first play from scrimmage while Spiller turned one in on the opening kickoff. My favorite internet quote that I saw was about the Clemson defense: "We are like a rolling ball of butcher's knives." I feel like the Chicago Superfans with this pick when they were asked, "Who would win: Ditka, or God?" "Ditka, but it'd be close." I think Kevin Steele, our new DC, is the difference in a thriller as the Tigers sneak in a win by the narrowest of margins and take a commanding lead in the division.
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Remarks on Last Week:
ReplyDelete- The ACC is just an awful conference to root for. We are the "play with anybody, lose to anyone" conference. We've got plenty of NFL talent, some consensus decent coaches, and another year to try and salvage our reputation after a week 1 disaster.
- On the Blount punchout: The guy freakin' deserved it. I was more miffed about his tirade against the fans, but socking that DE was a sweet sweet thing (and it was NOT a sucker punch...a sucker punch would be two days later). Blount's suspended for the season right now, but he said all the right things after the game, and if he stays with it in practice he'll be reinstated just in time for the USC game...I mean, it is major college football after all, right?
- Each week I'll try to pick up on one of the "Under the radar" scores that might go unnoticed otherwise but that I find interesting. Unfortunately Week 1 consisted of about 7 interesting games and 85 utter blowouts. So this week I'll go with Buffalo 23 - UTEP 17. Buffalo is coming off a MAC championship and Turner Gill will be an excellent coach when major college football decides to finally desegregate. Buffalo lost a lot after last year's late hot streak, and while neither conference is much to get excited about, I'd say a rebuilding MAC team over a probably CUSA division contender is a mild upset (very mild, like poblano peppers).
Last Week's Picks: 4-7 StraightUp, 5-6 ATS
ReplyDeleteWhew, talk about shaking off the rust. I suppose what we should take away from Week 1 is that none of us know the slightest thing about how to pick games. So this week I will be changing tactics to the patented "Blindfold Darts" method...
Stanford @ Wake -2.5 - Stanford defeated lowly Wazzu on the road in week 1. Stanford has a nice power running back that will test Wake Forest, a team that relies on smart quick defenders without much size. That said, West-to-East Noon away games are worth a touchdown for the home team. Wake lost last week in part because of four turnovers on offense, uncharacteristic the last few years. If Skinner can get any protection, he'll be sharper in Week 2. I'm still taking Stanford to win and cover, Cardinal 27-17.
UNC -5 @ UConn - UConn took out Ohio on the road last week, but barely. UNC clocked the Citadel while churning out lots of yards on the ground. That's a good sign for the Tar Heels, since I have no faith in UNC's quarterbacks. Both defenses are solid, but UNC has a talent advantage across the board, and while UNC's passing game is mediocre, UConn's is non-existant. That's bad because UConn's Donald Brown is now playing on Sundays. I'm going UNC to win handily, 30-10.
Iowa -7 @ Iowa St.- Iowa needed a miracle finish to NOT gag against their FCS opponent, in an ominous game for a preseason-ranked team. Iowa St, however, is not as talented as Iowa (supposedly) is. I won't let a poor showing obscure the fact that Iowa is still a pretty decent team (see Michigan two years ago, who defeated St. Tebow after the App St loss). Iowa to win and cover, 33-17.
Minnesota -4.5 @ Air Force - Air Force was truely impressive in their obliteration of Ninny State. However, Nicholls actually runs the same triple option as Air Force, so I think perhaps the AF defense had more than the usual familiarity with the opposing offense. Minny, on the other hand, struggled with Syracuse, going hot-and-cold as they tried to make the un-trendy switch FROM the spread TO a pro-style offense. Minnesota has receiver talent, and a typical Big 10 OL and DL: big and kinda slow. This is a hard one to read, but AF has a real good coach who's committed to the option system, and the air is quite thin in Colorado Springs. I'll go with AF to wear Minny out and cover in a high-altitude track meet, Falcons 37-34.
Notre Dame -3.5 @ Michigan - Both teams looked good last week. Both played bad teams, so it might mean nothing. Michigan's home field has been tainted ever since the App St game, so I'll confer no home advantage to UM. This game comes down to quarterbacks, as Clausen trumps anything Michigan's got. As much as it pains me, I'll pick ND to cover, 27-21.
Purdue @ Oregon -11.5 - Oregon is licking its wounds after being out-executed and out-toughed last week by Boise. Without its NFL-caliber RB due to what I call necessary roughness, and with their QB's late-season hot streak looking like nothing more than a flash in the pan, Oregon needs to get its feet underneath it before it pulls a Clemson and pisses away half a season. Purdue should be a golden opportunity for the Ducks to put up some points on offense, as it surrendered 31 in a Wk 1 shootout. Maybe the high-scoring game I expected last week will show up this time: Purdue to cover, Oregon to win, Ducks 42-37.
Vandy @ LSU -14.5 - Vandy acquitted itself well in Week 1 (wish the mid-level ACC teams would follow Vandy's example...) against a low-level team. LSU, on the other hand, struggled to put away a Washington team that was not on the same plane talent-wise. (LSU playing a road game at night and finding it more difficult...I guess turnabout is fair play!) However, this game is played back in Red Stick, LA, and with an equal talent disparity. LSU will probably be angry at being eclipsed in the media hype by 'Bama, I'll go with LSU to win and cover 27-7.
ReplyDeleteUCLA @ Tennessee -7.5 - Tennessee looked much more together offensively than I expected, albeit against a poor WKy team. UCLA, however, won easily but not convincingly. Another west-to-east away game, I might have to back off my preseason hunch that UCLA could win this one. I think this will be a fairly low-scoring match, with a Tennessee sack-fumble making all the difference. Tennessee to win, but UCLA to cover, Vols 17-14.
SoCar @ UGa -7 - UGa crumbled after taking an early lead as they played an OK St. team that was truely better than them. Meanwhile SoCar showed that their defense is solid, and as long as opponents give up crazy field position on fluky fumbles they will have a chance. I didn't like how either of these teams performed in Week 1, and suddenly I think UGa is not quite as talented as everyone assumes. In my upset pick, and against my better judgment, I'll pick SoCar to upset UGa between the hedges in a harrowing game, 21-19.
USC -7 @ Ohio St. - A matchup of the two most consistently successful BCS teams of the decade, these are two programs who wouldn't trade conferences for anything. Both get major benefits of the doubt while beating up average conferences year after year, leading to top five rankings (a la Florida St in the '90s). Last year USC obliterated OSU with an NFL-level defense lining up against a true-frosh QB. This year? Perhaps the opposite situation. Minus, of course, an NFL-level defense. Pete Carroll could be a mediocre coach and beat 100 teams in the US consistently. However, he's a really good coach, supreme motivator. USC has the O-line to protect Barkley the way OSU could not protect Boeckman-Pryor last year. Expect OSU to make more of a game than last year, but still fall short at home, USC to win and cover 30-16 while the Barkley hype machine rolls on.
Clemson @ GT -5.5 - ACC's second really important game in four days, as Coastal and Atlantic contenders square off on Thursday night. GT has the nation's 9th most efficient passing offense after beating up a I-AA team on Saturday. Oh yea, they also ran for 300+ yards. However, they allowed the ball to move a bit on D (backups or not), so perhaps they won't run away with this one. Clemson is counting on Spiller to be 100% after a little leg tweak while returning punts last week. Spiller is tougher than he gets credit for, but explosive players who depend on speed become quite average when they've got a bad wheel. This matchup is pretty even, and Clemson will hold up against the running onslaught better than most. However, I see GT getting a couple big plays over the top against a hyper-aggressive Clemson defense, and Dwyer and Co. grinding out the clock in the 4th quarter. Ga Tech 27-Clemson 19.
I can't agree about Blount. He punched an opponent after they got done playing a game. The he went after people in the stands. He wasn't even done when his teammates tried to restrain him. This is after he ran his mouth to the press about how badly they were going to beat up on the Broncs. Blount's lucky to get what he got.
ReplyDeleteStanford @ Wake (-2.5)
ReplyDeleteI'm going with Wake on this one. Stanford still sucks, even though Wake forgot how to play football last week. I think this week Wake remembers. And I think Wake covers.
UNC (-5.0) @ UConn
Because I like doggies, I decided that UConn would win the Big East. But since UNC isn't in the Big East, they win. They also cover.
Iowa (-7.0) @ Iowa St.
Talk about a game that no one cares about except corn farmers. And if the popcorn festival is in town in Des Moines this week, all bets are off. Iowa State does win this one, but just barely. ISU by 3.
Minnesota (-4.5) @ Air Force
Calling this an upset pick is like calling Barack Obama a good President. It just isn't true. Air Force is underrated. Air Force wins by a large margin.
Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Michigan
Ugly, ugly game here. Michigan wins, but only because ND players all get Swine flu. Michigan by 6.
Purdue @ Oregon (-11.5)
Suck on it Purdue. Oregon comes back a-flapping. But they don't cover because ducks scare me.
Vanderbilt @ LSU (-14.5)
UPSET PICK. VANDY WILL WIN 7 GAMES THIS SEASON!!!! GO DORES! Vandy by 3 in a wild one.
UCLA @ Tennessee (-7.5)
Lane Kiffin and his daddy Monte win big. They cover x 3.
South Carolina @ UGa (-7.0)
Dawgs blew it big time last week. Spurrier seizes on the opportunity to murder a UGA player. Cocks win and cover.
USC (-7.0) @ Ohio State
USC will blow out OSU. It won't be close. It will be a 30 point margin. USC covers, covers big, and shuts up OSU fans for months.
9/10
Clemson @ GT (-5.5)
Ga Tech wins and covers. Sorry tigers.
What, no shout out to Army for it's first season opening win since 1996? I'm shocked and mildly offended! But I think GTech takes it tonight.
ReplyDeleteBlount had just finished playing a game in which players REGULARLY try to hurt each other INTENTIONALLY. I recall an Auburn blocker taking out Glenn Dorsey's knee two seasons ago. I recall a UVA player tackling BC's Kiwanuka from behind below the knees before that. BRETT FAVRE basically tried to take a guy out of the NFL with his malicious crackback block. And there were swirling rumors of headhunting in the NFL last season regarding Hines Ward. Plus the eye-gouging, ankle-twisting, crotch-punching that goes on in every pileup. This malicious violence is in my mind MUCH WORSE than a provoked response against a poor sport who basically dared the guy to hit him at a time when Blount's emotions were understandibly raw. The media backlash is a bullcrap public relations outcry from a group of people who would encourage violent physicality during the game in the same breath that they condemn Blount for losing his cool under provacation. And I can't help thinking that the media response would be different if the Boise player was black, or if Blount was white.
ReplyDeleteI mean...a hockey game isn't a good hockey game unless there's a fist fight! People tune into MMA hoping to see people get KOed in as violent a way as possible. The American populace is NOT shocked by this, little children won't lose their innocence over this, and that Boise DE had no lasting damage except perhaps to his bloated sense of self-superiority. But Blount is going to pay with his career anyway, as people everywhere pat themselves on the back and say stuff like "Blount should've been arrested for what he did", "Blount is an unhinged, violent person", and "There's no excuse for that kind of behavior".
Brett Favre was fined, Lee Ziemba (Auburn's chopblocker) should have been flagged, and Blount should have been suspended. The one that is different from the other, though, is that Blount's infraction took place after the game was over. The game is violent, yes. Big hits are indeed exciting. But that does not mean when the game is over it would be socially acceptable for a safety to tackle a BMW driver for stealing his parking space at the mall.
ReplyDeleteBlount had a high profile quote that exploded everywhere on ESPN about taking revenge on BSU, rightly or wrongly, that played a factor in stirring this up. He didn't deliver, and showed he's an ungracious loser, and hit somebody because of it. There is not a circumstance where that is acceptable.
The racial aspect you bring up is outrageous. When Todd Bertuzzi punched Steve Moore [during the course of a hockey game] nobody said, "Oh, that's just hockey." In fact, he was charged with assault causing bodily harm, and Bertuzzi is plenty white. If the same thing had happened after the game was over, would that make the circumstances different?
The fighting in MMA is the sport, and there's an understanding upon entering into the ring that's what's going to happen. If after a lopsided fight, the winner says something snide to the loser and the loser hits him, that is not ok, nor would it be considered to be under any circumstance.
It is too much to say that he is a violent person, because one night does not a personality make. Using the damage to the guy who was hit as some sort of yardstick as to whether or not it's ok to hit him is also outrageous. That would be a contributing factor in the decision on whether or not charges make sense, because clearly the consequences are not nearly as severe for Byron Hout as they were for Steve Moore.
This is all before he reacted violently to his teammate and the fans. If it was just the punch and then he backed off and disappeared, yeah, a game or two suspension would probably be in order. This does not, of course, absolve Hout, either. He got off light.
The key point was the obvious dissonance between the encouraged glorified violence that DRIVES American sports and harsh judgmentalism when that boils over into "real life". I think Blount is being given a scarlet letter here, no doubt committing a serious offense and losing his cool, but paying a disproportionate penalty, while everyone who fueled the fire now tut-tuts about his lack of character.
ReplyDeleteThe racial issue might be one we won't see eye-to-eye on, but it's nothing more than my opinion and there's no way to prove or disprove it. I'm not saying Blount is absolved by any means because of it. I'm simply saying the media reaction might be different.
I suppose the ultimate point I'm trying to make is that the guy shouldn't marginalized, or hung out to dry. There is probably nothing in my life that I've invested time, effort and pain in that would compare to Blount's dedication to football. He is not paid to do what he does, he does it while juggling extraneous responsibilities (spare the rocks-for-jocks comments please). He lost the game and performed badly, and some JACKASS who enjoys pushing buttons decided to belittle him about it. Did he go too far to defend what he basically LIVES for? Perhaps. But I'm sick of the judging.
Everyone knows what it's like to deal with people who act like Hout did, who think they can push buttons and never see the ramifications. And the terrible thing about this whole situation isn't that Hout got off "light", it's that he got away with virtually no ramifications AT ALL, and with the benefit of everyone's doubt. A bully gets bullied back, and everyone sides with him. It's just sickening to me.
Two points - Blount sucker-punched a player in the face who wasn't wearing a helmet. From a legal perspective, Blount committed a battery. The game was over, the teams were leaving the field, and Hout said something derogatory. Probably something like, "Good game, Quackers." Either way, answering words with violence is always illegal, unless you are preventing some other felony from occurring by taking the action.
ReplyDeletePoint two - Why this immediately became a racial thing is interesting. Hout probably didn't make a racially charged comment at Blount because he was standing with other African-American players on his own team. He didn't make a comment about race. They were fighting as two opposing players after a sporting event. It became racial by outside observers. The tired accusation "If he was white he wouldn't have gotten suspended." Tell that to the Duke Lacrosse team.
Let's call this situation what it is: a player went too far, embarrassed himself and his program, by making a decision to get violent after someone said something demeaning to him. He reacted liked a grade school child. Hout probably deserved it. A lot of people deserve to be cold-cocked across the jaw. But he got what he deserved.
It wasn't the NCAA that penalized him, although they should have, it was the A.D. of Oregon. Blount gets to finish college for FREE, as he keeps his scholarship from the school. I wouldn't boo-hoo over his situation. College is all about learning, and I think LeGarrette Blount learned a lot about being a function adult in American society.
Ok, I woke up early and hungover just to get my picks in!
ReplyDeleteStanford @ Wake (-2.5)
If last year is any indication, the ACC rebounds after an embarrassing opening weekend. I think Wake finally helps represent the ACC in a nonconference game and wins in convincing fashion (note: I didn't say by a lot of points...Wake never wins by a lot and covers).
UNC (-5.0) @ UConn
UNC wins this going away, by at least two scores, further helping the ACC's reputation.
Iowa (-7.0) @ Iowa St.
I'll take Iowa State in this one by a field goal. I think it's a close game, but they have a team that can actually block for a field goal.
Minnesota (-4.5) @ Air Force
Hard to believe I'm saying this, but Minnesota showed a lot in their win against Cuse. Now I'm not saying they're going anywhere nationally or even in the Big Ten, but they won an overtime game in a hostile environment against a team that had them down and is desperate to start winning big games again. I think they win again, but I'll take Air Force to cover.
Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Michigan
This is the one game where I can't let logic dictate my pick. I'm going with Michigan over ND if for no other reason than to hear Lou Holtz's response after the game.
Purdue @ Oregon (-11.5)
First home game, and Oregon has a lot to prove to salvage their season. I think they win and cover.
Vanderbilt @ LSU (-14.5)
LSU wins and covers easily. I think Washington is surprisingly improved and they have a great QB...last week's close game wasn't so much LSU being exposed as Washington finally showing up for a game.
UCLA @ Tennessee (-7.5)
As much as I want Tennessee to be good (to beat Floriduh), I think UCLA at least covers in this game...but I'm picking the Bruins to win.
South Carolina @ UGa (-7.0)
I know it was week 1, but UGa's offense did not look very good. Could have been Ok St's defense, but I don't think so.... Georgia wins in a low scoring game, but USC covers.
USC (-7.0) @ Ohio State
USC by multiple touchdowns...I think this game is over by halftime.
9/10
Clemson @ GT (-5.5)
I think GT wins this game in a thriller...I'm feeling a last minute field goal by GT that was made possible only by a BS holding call on Clemson (come on...the guy just fell down on his own). I'll pick GT by 3, even though it should have been Clemson by 3. I've got a good feeling about this pick >.>...
Sorry Jackal, I'll work on it.
ReplyDelete