Week 4

I missed the recap but I have been kind of busy this week. I'll do it here, but really, it's just counting, so any of the rest of you could have done it as well.

Me: 5/12, 5/12 ATS (17/45, 20/45 ATS)

SHatter: 6/12, 6/12 ATS (24/45, 22/45 ATS)

VTFerguson: 3/12, 4/12 ATS (13/34, 14/34 ATS) [13/45, 14/45]

IbisFan33: 3/12, 2/12 ATS (20/34, 14/34 ATS) [20/45, 15/45]

SHatter rocked this week, and IbisFan33 tried to let the rest of us catch up. That was nice of him. That week, though, made a few marquee ACC teams (FSU, Miami, UNC and Clemson) look silly and a couple look great (VT and GT). How much of a factor did the rain play? Makes life fumblier, that's for sure. I was out of town and missed most of the games, so I can't really comment further. On to the picks!

1. FSU (-4.5) @ BC

This game is the Gameday game? What? It's kind of a slow week, but this isn't even the most compelling game involving the ACC, let alone the country. Good lord. Even after the massive brain fart that was the USF game, FSU is still dangerous and I expect them to go nuts and win by well more than 5. Against a QB, who while awful, still threw for more TDs than ours did in our game.

2. Ole Miss (-9.0) @ Vanderbilt

We love Vandy here at this blog, even if they haven't really returned the favor yet. This will help fill in the picture on the also rans in the SEC, like Ole Miss and South Carolina, after the Rebels put up a stinker against the Gamecocks. It's my Clemson bias showing through, but I think that Ole Miss is just a lot crappier than we saw last year and the 'Dores pull the upset.

3. NCSU @ Wake Forest (-1.0)

Wake is favored in this game? Wolfpack for a thousand, Alex. This game starts to make Seminole and Tiger fans start to get antsy about the Atlantic Division.

4. Air Force @ Navy (-3.0)

Service academy games are fun. I would like to see us play them more. I think Navy is the better team here, but I want to watch this football game. Navy wins and covers.

5. LSU @ UGa (-3.0)

Both of these teams kind of look like shadows of themselves, even though LSU is undefeated still. This line confuses me, I would have expected the Tigers to be favored. I think LSU is better, even though they have been underwhelming so far. I'll take them to win.

6. Georgia Tech (-6.0) @ Mississippi State

MSU is showing signs of life we haven't seen n Starkville since Jerrious Norwood got Ron Zook fired. The Bulldogs are sneaky good at home, so I think they'll cover, but the Bees still win.

7. UCLA @ Stanford (-5.5)

UCLA is another one of the surprising undefeated teams, and Stanford is a choked game away from being there right with them. Ivan Maisel pointed out on his podcast that this is the most important conference game in the Bay area, even though USC is playing at Cal this weekend. Weird. I think UCLA could sneak this one out, though.

8. Auburn @ Tennessee (-2.0)

Night game in Knoxville... but Auburn has been scoring points, has a signature win from behind, and is undefeated. They look like the surprise team in the West that I thought Arkansas was going to be. As much as I like Monte Kiffin, the Volunteers' QB stinks. Malzahn will wear that good defense out, and I think the Tigers steal one.

9. Southern California (-5) @ Regular California

The Bears kind of got humiliated last week, and as tempting as they are to take for the rebound, I don't think I can do it. Trojans win, but don't cover.

10. Oklahoma! (-7.5) @ Miami

This is the game at which ESPN and Big and Rich and Cowboy Troy should be singing. Is Bradford back? Do they actually kind of suck (comparatively)? What about Miami's debacle last week? How many times will the commentators say "swagger"? Good lord, is that obnoxious. No other team walks around like they're better than other people? Really? That said, I don't think OU has it together yet. I think that Miami, being at home and having their faces shoved in their own poop last week gets them fired up to win big.

BONUS: VT (-17) @ Duke

Throwing Ferguson a bone because I felt bad that the rest of our teams made it and his didn't. VT by like a thousand.

Clemson (-13.0) @ Maryland

Maryland looks like an awful team, and sadly there might be two teams worse than the Terps in the ACC. We are looking like what we thought we would, a 7-5/8-4 kind of team, assuming we win the games we're suppose to, like this one. I think we win and cover and might even score an offensive touchdown!

Week 4

I had this whole week written out, but I left it at work. I know, I know, I shouldn't be writing blog entries at work, but in my defense, some days it is really boring.

This week will answer some questions for us across the board, I think. Like can the midpack SEC teams play defense? Is Miami actually that good? Is the Pac10 the most interesting conference in the country? And what's up with Georgia Tech's offense? Let's find out!

9/24

Ole Miss (-4.0) @ South Carolina

I'm pretty sure that everyone in the country thinks that the Rebels are overrated. They are. But does that mean that they are not better than the Gamecocks? No, it does not. Ole Miss wins and covers on the road.

9/26

Wake Forest @ BC (-1.0)

This line surprises me. BC does not look that good, and Wake Forest has actually beaten BCS level competition. The Eagles' QB is not good, and Wake's is. I have to take the Deacs here. A vote for Wake is a vote for Protestants.

Pittsburgh @ NC State (-1.0)

I cannot believe that the Wolfpack is favored in this game. An ACC team that looked terrible at home against an average SEC team gets a point against the Big East favorite? As much crap as we've gotten as a conference from the media so far, this is ridiculous. I was going to take NCSU anyway, I just wanted some points while doing it.

Arkansas @ Alabama (-17.5)

This is a lot of points. This game, I think, will tell us a good deal about the SEC's teams; if Arky can light up the scoreboard on Bama, then I think we can say that UGa, SoCar and Arky all have good offenses. If the Hogs find themselves Hog Tide (get it?) then basically I think it will look like the conference minus Bama and UF are in for a down year the rest of the way. In any event, I'll take Bama to win and not cover because Good Lord, it's almost three touchdowns.

USF @ FSU (-14.0)

Hey look! Their letters are the same in reverse! This game became a lot less interesting without Grothe. FSU wins and covers.

UNC @ GT (-2.5)

This is a really interesting game because the Heels have looked bad winning and Tech has looked bad winning and losing so far. NC has the DLine to keep the dive in check, but all it takes is a few wily plays out of PJ to keep the game interesting (Grr). I think after last week, the Bees will find a way to win.

Washington @ Stanford (-7.0)

After last week's crazypants upset, this game just got a lot more interesting. Was last week just Pete Carroll's typical "Oops, I crapped my pants" game, or was Sarkisian putting the West Coast on notice? I will take Stanford to win, but not cover, because I think it'll be close but the emotion of last week will be too much for the Huskies to deal with.

Cal (-5.5) @ Oregon

This is just another game that makes the Pac10 seem oddly compelling this season. Will Oregon's first game serve as Murderfuel for them to take the form that we (I) kind of expected out of them? Or is Jahvid Best going to go bananas again like he did against Minnesota? I think Oregon is able to continue winning at home, even though this pick hurts me, because I am pretty high on both of these teams.

Texas Tech @ Houston (-1.0)

I was trying to pick between this game and UGa-ASU, and I chose this one because it seems weirder, and I think that Georgia is a far superior team. This matchup is nonsense. Houston has shown impressive aptitude so far, and the Red Raiders always remain capable of scoring like 900 touchdowns through the air. The over/under in this game is 73. I'll take the over, and Coach Leach recovers from last week Arrrghhh.

Miami (-2.5) @ Virginia Tech

This is the most interesting game of the day. High ranking opponents, Miami going crazy on offense and VT pretty much being VT. The Canes got the GT monkey off their back last week, and now they go to Blacksburg. It's hard to bet against Jacory Harris right now, but the Hokies will have a better DLine than anything Miami has had to deal with so far. If Tech gets consistent pressure, then Harris might do dumb stuff. I will take Miami to win but not cover, for no reason other than to hedge my bets and because I could see it being super close.

BONUS GAME: Iowa @ Penn St (-9.5)

This is one of the most important Big Ten games of the year. I don't think it's really that interesting because the Big Ten just isn't that fun to watch right now. Sure, Michigan looks a little better, but that's pretty much all they have going on right now. Penn St will play in the national title game this year, and they win this one, but it looks oddly close. Penn State wins, but Iowa covers.

TCU @ Clemson (-2.5)

I just got an e-mail that says this is the 50th year anniversary of the Blue Bonnet Bowl where we beat them. Hooray. I think this will be a matchup of two excellent defensive squads that will be settled by special teams. I could see this ending something like 13-6. Of course I'm taking Clemson, and I think we cover.

Week 3 Recap

Scorecard:

Me - 4/11, 6/11 ATS (12/33, 15/33 ATS); 0/3 on upsets

SHatter - 7/11, 6/11 ATS (18/33, 14/33 ATS)

IbisFan33 - 8/10, 8/10 ATS (17/20, 12/20 ATS) [17/33, 12/33 ATS]

VTFerguson - (10/22, 10/22 ATS) [10/33, 10/33 ATS]

I used to be good at this; I don't know what happened. If I go to Vegas, I am taking IbisFan33 with me. SHatter has the slight edge over me at the moment. I guess we'll have to do drop a week or something.Which would normalize the stats a bit. In brackets, the total possible picks are shown; the parentheses show the correct picks per picks made.

I can't believe I picked Florida to cover a 30 point spread. That seems silly in retrospect. I think this should be my mulligan year of this game. I am amused that I can pick against the spread better than games outright, but I still haven't crossed 50% yet. Next time, Gadget.

Thoughts on the game

This is an easy one. Clemson looked very good on defense and special teams, and looked awful on offense. Kyle Parker looked like a redshirt freshman, the receivers did not get great separation, the tight end Michael Palmer looked great, CJ is incredible, and Ellington ground out the clock very nicely at the end. It was like the Virginia Tech Hokies were wearing orange and white!

Also, Boston College is not that good.

Week 3

This is an exciting week for college football games. I am going to miss most of them because I will be attending the Boston College game, and I am looking forward to some evisceration. I am currently on a six game losing streak; the last games I have attended were: Georgia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Alabama, Virginia Tech, South Carolina. Maybe the Tigers losing is my fault.

Here are the games.

9/17
GT @ Miami (-5.5)
One prediction I can confidently stand by: this game will not be as weird as last Thursday's. I will be happy to take Tech in this one; I think they win outright. I don't think they will quite run for the infinity yards they did last year, though.

9/19
UConn @ Baylor (-10.0)
UConn lost a close one to UNC and Baylor beat Wake. This is just a weird intersectional game and I think Baylor will probably win, because that ends up making the ACC look the silliest. But 10 points is ridiculous, Huskies cover.

Texas Tech @ Texas (-17.5)
Mike Leach might be my favorite coach not wearing orange and purple. The more I think about this game, though, the more trouble I am having with it. Neither of these teams have really played anybody yet, so it's hard to tell. I want to take Tech, I really do. I know that 17.5 points is too many for a Mike Leach team not playing Bob Stoops. I guess not having the tree full of crabs will probably be too much, but I still think this is an upset potential. You know what? Go big or go home, right? Red Raiders win a stunner in Austin! (Over/under is 67, I will take the over.)

Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt (-9.0)
This will be the second game that Dan Mullen starts to question why he ever left Florida. Vandy rolls.

Tennessee @ Florida (-29.5)
How many times will Urban Meyer punch Lane Kiffin in the face, either literally or figuratively? I'm guess at least a thousand. Florida wins and covers.

Nebraska @ Virginia Tech (-4.5)
Good game last year, Nebraska should be even better. Expect a close game again. VT wins, but Nebraska covers, because I like saying Ndamukong Suh.

Utah @ Oregon (-4.5)
I'm a little surprised to see Oregon the Vegas favorite, but I don't really disagree that much. I think Oregon is a better team than how they looked against BYU and the Runnin' Utes lost a ton from their incredible team last year. I like Oregon to win by a TD.

WVU @ Auburn (-7.0)
I am still not prepared to say that Auburn has risen from the giant pile of stink that was last year. Mountaineers go into the Plains and win, even though they sacrifice the elevation advantage.

UGa @ Arky (-1.0)
This game is weird. Arkansas has played zero teams so far, so we know nothing about them. Georgia has played two teams so far, and we don't know anything about them, either. If Georgia's secondary plays like they did last week, Mallett will crush them, as if he was using a mallet. I am starting to think that the Bulldogs might not actually be that good, and Arkansas holds serve and puts the SEC West on notice.

Criminoles @ Mormons (-7.0)
This is a really fun game because before the season, it looked like FSU was probably BCS bound and this would be a footnote along the way. Then the Cougars knocked off last year's runner up and the Noles forgot how to play defense and nearly choked at home against the Gamecocks (not even the... well yes, the good Gamecocks.) Now, BYU is a clear favorite and FSU is just starting a rough four game stretch that involves hosting USF, going to Boston then coming back for the Yellow Jackets in the Doak, all after this trip to Provo. Yikes. I think this this will end up being a lot closer that we'd think, but the travel and excitement building in the Beehive State will win out in the end. FSU covers, but I wouldn't be super surprised if they pulled it out.

BC @ Clemson (-6.5)
Boston College has put up really impressive numbers so far, which is good for whoever their QB is, because he needs to distract the conference with those cupcakes like in Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure for NES. However, when they come into Death Valley, they better have the dynamite, because when the music stops, the Tigers are coming. Nobody remembers that game? Really? Tigers win big.

Week 2 Recap

Looking at Week 2, I don't think we really did that much better as a group, other than Ibisfan. I went 5/11 and 6/11 ATS, for a cumulative 8/22 and 9/22. Fantastic. Also, 0/2 for upsets, which was kind of my gimmick when I first did this; I had some ludicrous streak of like missing 1 over two years. I guess this is what happens when you take a couple of years off.

Other bloggers --
VTFerguson: 6/11, 5/11 ATS (10/22, 10/22)
SHatter: 6/11, 5/11 (11/22, 8/22)
IbisFan33: 9/10, 4/10 (9/10, 4/10)

I had to count these to be sure like 8 times. Everybody's still in it, unless IbisFan33 makes a habit of that. But since he missed the first week, maybe they'll just count against him as all wrong. We'll have to get a ruling from the other bloggers.

I have a few questions after this season.

• Like why aren't people making fun of the Big XII? Their marquee team lost in a surprise, Colorado looks pretty crappy, Oklahoma State crapped their pants, Missouri almost got beat by Bowling Green (Urban Meyer doesn't coach there anymore), and KState got beat by UL-Lafayette.
• Are the SEC defenses good or are the offenses crappy? I'm not buying NCSU just yet, so I'm not convinced that they just bottled up SoCar's offense. Garcia grew up a lot in Athens on Saturday, but really? That big of a difference? Georgia might be in for a long season. And Mississippi State scored 24 on Auburn who scored 49? Did Auburn score 49 points all season last year?
  
• I'm not choosing us to pick a Notre Dame game until they beat a ranked opponent. I don't want to talk about them and it bothers me that their mascot is a leprechaun because their program is so damn obnoxious and leprechauns are kickass.
• Central Michigan beat Michigan State, and that's not as big a blot on the Big Ten as you'd think. This could be a renaissance year for them, but we won't know until Bowl Season because they think they're too good to play anybody. CMU's Dan LeFevour is an NFL prospect; he's like a Tebow who is good at passing.

Picks will be up at Wednesday, on location from Clemson, South Carolina.

A Few Notes about Thursday

After watching the game on Thursday and getting off the emotional roller coaster that the Clemson Tigers took me on (which happens really, really often), I think there are some positives to take home. There are some glaring negatives, too. Let's look at them.

Good

1. Kyle Parker looks like our quarterback. As a RS Freshman this was really his first game to speak of and he acquitted himself well. If he doesn't opt for the baseball contract, we'll be in good shape.
2. The defense is scary good. To start the game, a pooch punt return, a fake field goal, and a blown coverage led to scoring. Only one of those really falls on the defense proper, and after that, they only allowed 3 field goals. In a game like this, if the defense only allows 16, you expect to win. Johnathan Dwyer, ACCOPoY, was basically a non-factor in the game.
3. The coaching staff looks competent. This time last year, I could not say that. It is extremely encouraging to be able to walk away from the game and not feel like the other team was better at us in every aspect of the game, like Alabama was last year. The game plan was good, the playcalling was improved over last year, and and there were halftime adjustments on both sides of the ball. Not only that, but the team toughed its way back to a lead after going into halftime down 24-7
4. Individual players, CJ Spiller and Jacoby Ford, are ridiculous. It is a shame that they have to go next year, but they have been special players for us.

Bad

1. Looking at #4 above, there weren't a lot of other offensive contributions. Hopefully against a weaker opponent next week (BC at home) we can get other players involved.
2. Gadget plays as a playcalling option from this team has not been super productive. Sure, there was the CJ Spiller pass for the only TD scored against UVa last year, but other that that, it has not turned out well for us. The pooch kick and a WR pass from Tyler Grisham have given GT 14 points. Without those plays, Clemson wins both games. We also ran a reverse last night, and while it wasn't successful on its own, that is a direction of trickery that has better potential to succeed.
3. Offensive line still isn't great. Everyone points to the 3 tries from like the 4 where we couldn't punch it in. That needs to get better.
4. Next year, it looks like we will have a quarterback controversy. Willy Korn probably won't go away as an issue, because the fans love him. If Parker continues to play like he has, he's not going anywhere. But Tajh Boyd takes his redshirt off next year, and by all accounts he is an extraordinary talent. It's a good problem to have, I suppose.

Another thing I noticed was that it seems like the "magic formula" to stop this offense is to have dominating DTs that can control the dive on their own. Obviously that's easier said than done, but there are a few teams on Tech's schedule that can achieve that. Their next game at Miami will be a very interesting one to watch.

I don't know how much the whiteout contributed, but with CPJ, Tech is building a meaningful home field advantage. The fans were loud when they were supposed to be in ways I haven't seen in my other trips to Bobby Dodd. Good for them.

I hope next year the game winning drive is not stalled due to a questionable holding call.

Week 2... Good Lord

Last week was not my best showing. I went 3/11 on the games and 3/11 on the spread. I could have had a chicken walk across a bingo card I created with those teams and choose the teams it pecks and done at least that well. I even missed the upset. Crap.

VTFerguson did me one better on the games at 4/11 and 5/11 on the spread. SHatter won the games outright with 5/11, the spread with 4/11, but he did call the awkward moment correctly.

I blame Kenny Chesney and Dave Matthews for our poor performances. Why does ESPN have this insistence on forcing music on us? It might not be so bad if it wasn't the same two songs all damn season. Or in the case of Big and Rich and Cowboy Troy for what seems like ever. These people have been singing that abhorrent "Coming to your Citay" song or longer than half of the ACC coaches have been in their current jobs. Nothing says "hip" like a five year old song performed by a novelty country act!

Week 2 is not as supercharged with fun as Week 1 was, even if our beloved conference caught a ton of hell. Only two of the good teams in the conference lost (VT and FSU), each to quality opponents, the crappy ones turned out to be really crappy, and the middle of the conference (UNC, GT, Clemson) were not tested last week. Miami was the big story, and with Bradford going out and VT does not look to be super offensive this year, that if they can get by GT and VT, they might be the national program the conference is looking for. Then again, GT hung like 13,000 rushing yards on the Canes last year, so those are big ifs.

Picks!
Stanford @ Wake (-2.5)
Wake let us all down last week (not as bad as Navy did, though). I kind of think they'll do it again. Stanford and the drunk tree beat the Deacs.

UNC (-5.0) @ UConn
UConn is not any good, and UNC is supposed to be. Some cred is rebuilt for the ACC as the Heels tar the Huskies by at least a touchdown, probably more.

Iowa (-7.0) @ Iowa St.
Iowa dodged two bullets against in embarrassing fashion by blocking two field goals to avoid getting beat in their own house by Northern Iowa. Yuck. Will they be able to use that kind of mojo again on the road in Ames? Probably, but it will again be embarrassingly close; Cyclones cover.

Minnesota (-4.5) @ Air Force
Minnesota won a squeaker against Syracuse (who threw no less than 85 bubble screens in a Rob Spence masterpiece) who played Greg Paulus (did you know he used to play point guard for Duke?) and AF put up 76 on Nobody State while allowing zero. This is a pride game for the MWC, and they are on a mission. I vote for Air Force; I vote for America. This is my upset pick.

Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Michigan
This game is what I think it would be like to go back to your 25 year high school reunion to see two twice divorced cheerleaders vying for the attention of the balding, beer-gutted captain of the football team. In their day, it would have been a dramatic thing of beauty, but now it's a casserole of awkward and sad. Both won their previous games in convincing fashion, but I think there's less sag in ND's figure than Michigan's. Irish win and cover. Sláinte!

Purdue @ Oregon (-11.5)
This is not that interesting and I apologize. Despite laying an egg last week, I think that the Boilers are just the team to turn things around in Duckburg. (See what I did there?) Purdue covers, that's a lot of points for a team with that much drama to give.

Vanderbilt @ LSU (-14.5)
Mr. Miles went to Washington (the other one) and did not score a million points last week. Vandy beat up on WCU. I'd love to take te 'Dores here, but the Bayou Bengals will win, but not by as much as you think, so I can only say they'll cover.

UCLA @ Tennessee (-7.5)
Lane Kiffen did his best impression of Urban Meyer last week by scoring 63 on the most incredible amorphous mascot ever. This is a rematch of an oddly exciting game from last year that started the Fulmer Train on its way to Sackedville. The Vols start building momentum until getting smashed on the Swamp next week. Tennessee wins big.

South Carolina @ UGa (-7.0)
SoCar played the ugliest game I have watched rom beginning to end last week. All I could think of was the Dodgeball quote involving retards, a doorknob, and an act of sexual congress. My girlfriend was sad after the OKSU game last week, and lucky for both of us, that attitude will be gone this weekend because Georgia will win, though probably win ugly in a game that will be closer than it ought to be. Go Dawgs! Cocks cover, sadly.

USC (-7.0) @ Ohio State
In the preseason, it was chic to say that Ohio State would beat USC this year, but last weak, they avoided a really, really close shave against Navy. What is the takeaway for a team like OSU playing against the Paul Johnson offense (minus Paul Johnson)? Nobody knows. I still like the Buckeyes' chances, actually. The struggles will be good for them; I could see Ohio State winning outright.

9/10
Clemson @ GT (-5.5)
Speaking of the Paul Johnson offense, my Tigers get to meet up with the real McCoy for the second time tomorrow night, which I will be watching in person. Neither team was really tested last week, and both superstar running backs put on a show right out of the gates. Dwyer ran for a big TD on the first play from scrimmage while Spiller turned one in on the opening kickoff. My favorite internet quote that I saw was about the Clemson defense: "We are like a rolling ball of butcher's knives." I feel like the Chicago Superfans with this pick when they were asked, "Who would win: Ditka, or God?" "Ditka, but it'd be close." I think Kevin Steele, our new DC, is the difference in a thriller as the Tigers sneak in a win by the narrowest of margins and take a commanding lead in the division.

Week 1

Reviving an old tradition, I will tell you how the following games will turn out -- 10 of the most interesting with a general emphasis on the Southeast and a particular interest on the ACC -- plus the Clemson game. Why? Because living in Georgia gives ACCers an inferiority complex.

(Technical note: For the spreads, I use Wednesday's Harrah's odds.)

Week 1 is always tough, because teams like last year's Auburn, West Virginia and even Clemson were expected to do great things and finished about as satisfyingly as A Waltz With Bashir. Too obscure? No Country for Old Men? Too obvious? The hell with you people.
Thursday Games
South Carolina @ NC State (-5)
This is a compelling game because it offers all the sexiness of an ACC/SEC matchup with the excitement of being the first major game of the season but with the addition tease of bigger things to come. (Like an SEC team that isn't terrible. Zing!) This is the second part of a home and home that gave Gamecock fans everywhere one more week before their wildly unrealistic expectations were dashed. I have the feeling that this year will be a little different: NCSU will win, ushering in the first of many, many soul crushing losses for Spurrier and his Cocks. SoCar covers, though, teasing them with just a taste of possible success.

Oregon @ Boise State (-3.5)
I gave some props to Oregon for playing a tough schedule a few posts ago, and it starts immediately. The Smurf Turf welcomes the Ducks to swim on top, pond like, and face maybe the fourth toughest team on their schedule, and that is no slight on the Broncos. If you asked me at the end of last season who wins this game, I say Boise right away. However, I have grown pretty high on the Pac10 and I think at the top, they might have as strong a conference as anybody. Oregon wins an exciting shootout. I guess this one counts as my upset of the week.

Saturday Games
Maryland @ Cal (-21.0)
The Terps last year were such poster children for schizophrenia that all of Herschel Walker's personalities got jealous. They beat Cal last year in a win that would confuse Stephen Hawing. Cal, led by Jahvid Best (more like Jahvid Beast, amirite?) thumped his chest all season. Maryland goes west to Berkeley and will leave looking like that box turtle you saw on the side of the road that made you cry when you were six. Maryland covers.

Oklahoma (-22.5) vs. BYU in Dallas
While I expect BYU to be a very good team, Oklahoma will beat them in such a fashion that the Mormons will look for an outlet in alcohol a lot SOONER than anyone expected. OU wins game and spread.

Baylor @ Wake Forest (-2.0)
This would be a lot more fun if both teams still sucked. Baylor is improving, and Wake had more first round picks than Clemson in the last draft, which does not make me feel better about losing to them. I'm tempted to go with Baylor, but I don't think I can. Wake wins. But I do think these two teams should play each other every year, call it the "Baptist Bowl" and serve green bean casserole.

Illinois (-6.5) vs. Missouri in St. Louis
This is one of those rivalries like Washington-Washington St. or Kentucky Louisville that the announcers love to talk about how intense and underrated it is, but nobody actually cares about because one or both of the teams are not nationally relevant. They both have tried to tease us in recent years, but it's kind of like the plain looking chick who puts on make up for the first time. Sure, she might be worth a second look, but Juice Williams is still going to through like 4 interceptions a game. This game, however, that might be good enough. Illini win.

Georgia at Oklahoma St. (Even)
This is another one of those games like OU@BSU where at the end of the season, I was convinced the Cowboys would win this. UGa lost two first rounders on offense plus their leading receiver, and the boys in Stillwater bring a ton back to the table. I was recently reminded, though, that while Matthew Stafford can throw a football like 700 miles, he is still easily outwitted by most household pets. UGa wins in exciting fashion.

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama (-6.5) in ATL
I hate games played in the Georgia Dome. They make me sad. This game, however, makes me confused. Alabama has a fantastic coach but an undertalented team. The Hokies have been dropping runningbacks as if to say "Run first teams don't need talented running backs! I'm Frank Beamer! I'll just block extra points!" For some reason, in my head Frank Beamer sounds like John Kerry when saying that. Ultimately, I guess I have to go with Alabama, but I don't really believe in this pick; I'm just going through the motions the way Catholics do on Sundays.

Monday Games
Cincinnati @ Rutgers (-5.0)
Cincinnati lost literally a crapload of seniors last year. I respect their coach, but I just cannot imagine that they will be able to repeat when three of their four toughest conference games, including this one, are on the road. I also don't know what to make of Rutgers, because they have shown signs of turning around their hundred year oblivion (take heart, South Carolina!) but have not quite put it all together yet. I still think the Knights win, if for no other reason than because they are not afraid to embrace the froufrou color scarlet in tough-guy New Jersey.

Miami @ FSU (-6.0)
This game would be like if Egypt and Italy went to war -- it would have been exciting 2000 years ago, but doesn't quite have the same pop it once did. FSU is the favorite to win their division (grr), even with a questionable offense. Miami seems like they are moving in the right direction, but their coach has not demonstrated super confidence so far after being depantsed by Paul Johnson and Jeff Tedford last year. Sure they beat VT, but a lot of good that did them. I still have to follow conventional wisdom here and say the Noles win, but I wouldn't be heartbroken to see the Canes pull it out. I do think Miami covers, though, in one of your typical ugly 9-6 style games.

Clemson
MTSU @ Clemson (-19.0)
I like the fact that Dabo gets to keep his training wheels on for the first game of the season before facing aforementioned crazy man in Paul Johnson. I don't expect to learn very much about the team, even going against Tony Franklin's offense again. Wouldn't mind seeing a tight one where the defense plays option defense every down. Clemson wins one that looks close on the surface and does not cover the spread.