Monday, August 31, 2009

BCS Outlook

I want to give you a list of predictions fro 10,000 feet for each of the conferences. I am going to give bullet points, a few stories I think will be interesting for each of the 6 BCS conferences, my picks for winners, and maybe a National Title guess, too. Hopefully the other writers will pick up the pace and add their two cents, too.

Big East
This is probably the conference I know the least about. I miss Rich Rodriguez, where you could just pick WVU to win and be done with it. Things have changed, I guess, because that probably won't happen again for a while.
  1. Winner: Conventional wisdom says Pitt, but I do not believe in the 'Stache. I say Rutgers with their easy peasy schedule has the advantage.
  2. Cincinnati will fall back a little. They lost a lot, but kind of had a quietly great season. They'll be good, they have an excellent coach, but he hasn't built a program that can graduate 13 starters (9 on defense) and not take a step ack.
  3. USF has been a trendy pick in this league ever since Grothe has been their QB. They are an interesting team and fun to watch, but they don't seem to be very mentally tough to get as close as they have been and screw the pooch.
Big Ten
This conference is so boring.
  1. Winner: Penn State. They get Iowa and Ohio State at home, their toughest away game is at Michigan State who will not be as good as they were last year.
  2. What happens in Michigan? Do we see a jump in performance with another year in the system, or will Wolverine fans have to wait another year to see results? I think they will at least make a bowl, but won't scare any of the upper tier in the conference yet. They can call the UM-ND game the Mediocre Bowl.
  3. I am really curious to see if Purdue can return to te Tiller days under a new coach or if they will fade into obscurity.
Pac 10
I am really high on the Pac10 this year. I like the way they scheduled, I think that USC's exodus of talent will lead to some very entertaining competition this year. The offense, as usual, will be high flying fun out West, if you can stay up to watch.
  1. Winner: This is trickier than you think. I think that there is a narrow window this year for someone other than USC to play in the Rose Bowl. I just can't decide if it's going to be Oregon or Cal. I guess Oregon.
  2. Cal is also pretty impressive. Finished the season strong and Jahvid Best is a name you are going to hear a lot of this season.
  3. Stanford is the biggest wildcard in this league. Jim Harbaugh is a very impressive coach and it will be interesting to see how he does and for how long he coaches the Cardinal.
Big XII
The other SEC, except all the good teams are in one division (sorry Nebraska).
  1. Winner in the North: Nebraska, almost by default. Mizzou lost a ton of talent, Kansas has probaly hit their ceiling, and Nebraska is rouning into dangerous form again. I didn't like to see it at the end of last year, but Pellini was probably the right hire for them.
  2. Winner in the South: I like Oklahoma, and to win the whole conference. I know that everyone is taking Texas to the big one, but I don't know. My opinions are changing as we approach the season. OU lost a lot, and despite the Heisman Curse, I like their coaching staff better.
  3. Oklahoma State is the question mark. They are a dark horse contender for the conference and possily the National Title, but I don't quite buy into the last part. The game against UGa will set the tone for their season.
SEC
The conference that their fans take pride in being the toughest, and this year will probably take a step closer to being undisputedly so.
  1. Winner in the West: LSU. It looked like they sorted out their QB issues in the bowl game and shored up their defensive coaching staff. They will not allow 50 points to anyone this year.
  2. Winner in the East: Florida, duh. They will also win in Atlanta.
  3. Arkansas will be the surprise of the conference. I think they could finish ahead of Alabama, and will finish ahead of Ole Miss. Ole Miss will disappoint, even though Snead will continue to be a badass and probably be the steal of the NFL draft.
  4. South Carolina will suck out loud, and the waves of disappointment coming from Spurrier's visor will be felt as far away as Knoxville.
ACC
This conference will continue to be a jumbled mess, especially in the Coastal. Teams are starting to rise to stratify a little more, like they do in other conferences. With the out of conference schedule, there should be a lot of really good ACC games this year.
  1. Winner in the Coastal: Virginia Tech. It's their's until someone takes it from them.
  2. Winner in the Atlantic: The winner of the FSU-Clemson game will go to Tampa to play the Hokies. I hope it's the Tigers, but it will probably be the Noles.
  3. The Atlantic is going to be the weaker division this year, with Wake and BC being down. This might be the year that makes the grumbles for Friedgen audible outside of ACCland, an NCState lives and dies by their QB.
  4. The Coastal has a bottleneck with VT, GT, UNC, and Miami. Georgia Tech is the story of the league, returning a ton of players. We keep hearing about how he is going to install more of the offense. Ok. UNC should be good, but who knows. Same could be said for Miami, really. They have new coordinators in Coral Gables and had a dramatic offseason.
National Title Picks:
UF over Penn State. I can see something similar to last year happening in the Big XII, and an undefeated Penn State will get to play ahead of a one or two loss OU or UT. Nobody is demoting even a one loss Florida this year.

I will summarize in the comments. Leave your own predictions there.

3 comments:

  1. Big East: Rutgers
    Big Ten: Penn State
    Pac 10: Oregon
    Big XII: Oklahoma
    SEC: Florida
    ACC: Virginia Tech

    National Title: UF over Penn State

    ReplyDelete
  2. Awful choices. Big East - UConn - they have pretty serious, yet winnable, non-conference games (ND and UNC).

    Big Ten - Ohio State wins this one. They have a pretty decent schedule, but only in their noncons. The winner of the OSU/PSU game will be the conference champs.

    Pac 10 - Picking anyone but USC in this division is just silly. Silly silly silly silly. Go Trojans.

    Big XII - Texas. Texas. Texas. Texas. (Don't mess with).

    SEC - I won't be stupid. I will pick UF. Gay Gotors. This might be the best team ever. Literally.

    ACC - If I don't pick FSU I can't be true to myself. Go Noles! Va Tech is good, but FSU has a retooled offense based on the ground attack. If Jimbo did anything worth a damn over the off-season with his returning offensive line, they should easily win 9 games.

    National Title - University of Texas over University of Florida. 35-31. Hook 'em Horns. (Mostly because I don't like Florida, but they will, in all honesty, win.)

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  3. ACC - Winner: Virginia Tech! I cannot pretend to be unbiased, so I won't. VT returns tons of talent and starters in the O and D backfields, and is as likely as anyone to experience improved OL play (tied with Notre Dame for most returning OL starts in the nation!). Surprise: Wake Forest. Grobe's redshirt-everyone plan is built to soften the blow of years like this one, and they've got tons back on offense. Won't win the division, but nobody thinks they'll win 8+ games, and I think they might. Disappointment: Clemson? ESPN and others are billing Clemson as a team to watch, with "an improved OL" (if you haven't noticed, EVERYONE has an improved OL at this time of year). Changing Def. Coordinators can be at best a lateral move, since Clemson's defense didn't lose them any games last year anyway. Gaping holes at the receiver spots cannot be discounted, and now instead of two all-star RBs, they've got only one. How is that supposed to be a good thing? They could lose 5 or 6 games. Or I could be totally wrong.

    Big East - Winner: Rutgers. Welcomes all the other top contenders to Jersey, and is as good a pick as any in this jumble of a conference. Surprise: Louisville. Actually, nothing would surprise me in this conference, save Syracuse winning four games. Disappointment: Pittsburgh. McCoy was a workhorse in that offense, making yards out of broken plays, and will be missed.

    Big Eleven - Winner: Penn St. Begrudgingly, PsU seems primed, and hosts O-H-I-O St, so I'll give them a nod. Surprise: Michigan St. Buzz has ebbed and flowed for this team, so perhaps this isn't an out-on-a-limb pick. Still, I think MSU can challenge the other "State"s with tons back on defense. Disappointment: Michigan (again). A rebound pick for many, the Football Kharma gods are wreaking their vengeance on RichRod. News regarding possible NCAA violations indicate at best disharmony among the players, and at worst, mutiny. That's what you get for leaving your alma mater!

    Big XII - Winner: Oklahoma. Stoops will play on the media "slight" and build this team into another unstoppable machine. "Rebuilt OL" means something quite different at a school like OU, and the Offense is built on quick accurate throws anyhow. Surprise: Kansas. Nebraska is preseason top 25, so it's hard to call them a surprise if they win the North. Kansas under Mangino has staying power, and fifth-year QBs are a great asset to have. Disappointment: Texas. Without an effective pass rush, this team is built a lot more like Texas Tech than many will want to acknowledge. McCoy is a next level player and may prove me wrong, but Texas could lose 3 games.

    Pac-10 - Winner: USC. They're the best team in this conference and it's not close, and return everyone on offense but Sanchez. Surprise: UCLA. Probably not a challenge for the conference, but I could see a perfect non-conf record and 8-9 win season that will set them up for crazy expectations in 2010. Disappointment: Cal. Tedford teams are unpredictable, sometimes coming up big when they're underdogs but often laying eggs when they're expected to win.

    SEC - Winner: Florida. Who else am I gonna pick? Handmade schedule, and deep depth means even a Tebow injury won't stop them from being the best team in the conference. Surprise: Arkansas. I could say Tennessee but I think that kharma is strongly against Kiffin. Arkansas has their QB of the century with a year in the offense under his belt. Disappointment: Ole Miss. Hype is astronomical for this team, and the conference schedule is a joke, but I can't see the talent turning over that quickly to go from losers to top-10 in two seasons. Ole Miss benefitted from being in the muddled SEC-W last year, and is getting too much credit for ambushing a sleepwalking Florida team last year.

    National Title Winner: Oklahoma over Florida. Hey, gotta pick someone and I just don't know if I could stomach another offseason of Tebow man-love.

    ReplyDelete